Where Do Some Severe Thunderstorms Take Place?
where do some severe thunderstorms take place?
Say goodbye to one of the warmer Januarys
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Clouds - scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph gusts to 20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"- 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with some scattered showers - mild.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 60 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
. Wednesday night: Some clouds. Perhaps an evening sprinkle.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny. Continued mild.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 58 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Storm Chaser! (Ready-To-Read:)
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Cecile Schoberle
No major concerns..Some rivers are flooding - click here for that information .
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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Tweaked rain chances a little bit - otherwise no major changes.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here. or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A rumble of thunder possible.
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No.
Severe Weather Flying (AOPA/McGraw-Hill series in general aviation)
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Dennis NewtonThursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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TORNADO MYTHS? What to believe and not to believe - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here .
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This first map is rainfall through Wednesday night - the second map adds in the late week storm system - could be some heavier precipitation with the late week event (Friday/Saturday) - timing will need to be fine tuned as we draw a bit closer.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
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Date Range: January 17th-February 5th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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.I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service. .
Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
. Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
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1. Sorry snow fans - I feel your pain. I don't have any good news for you.
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Watching a storm system for Friday into Saturday - I am thinking rain and some thunderstorms. Uncertain on severe weather - I like to wait until we get closer to an event to make a call on that subject. Will monitor.
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This is the NAM model from www.wright-weather.com - showing a decent storm system wrapped up to our west - remember when the LOW pressure tracks to our west we typically end up on the warm side of the storm with rain and thunderstorms - as the storm passes us by to the east then the cold air will wrap in behind the storm. The NAM shows a decent signal for some thunderstorms - this is Friday evening's map. Click these images for the full size view
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This second map shows you the DEW POINT temperatures - struggling. I like to see dew points into the 50s or 60s in order to start thinking about severe thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored. Right now it appears a better chance for heavier storms over parts of KS/OK/TX/SW MO/AR. Again - let's monitor this in the coming days.
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Our region will certainly see some rain from this next system and some rumbles of thunder. I am certain about that - most likely late on Friday into Saturday.
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Rain may continue into Sunday - can't completely rule out a light mix as the storm pulls away and the upper level lows move close to the region. Will monitor - right now it does not look to be a big deal. Still some time to go before I can be more certain.
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No big changes in the overall pattern - some splashes of cold weather mixed in with the above normal temperatures pattern. Seems like a broken record this winter - doesn't it? Just can't seem to get the cold weather to lock in place. We are running out of time - meteorological spring begins on March 1st. The clock is ticking!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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